January 11, 2005

Predictions, 2005

I'll dissect my lame 2004 predictions in a later post, but now, my 2005 predictions:

Some predictions for this year around blogging:

  • This year, you'll see a lot of people fired for blogging, and only some shouldn't have been.
  • You'll see even more people sued for libel.
  • You'll also see a lot of people either settle or lose lots of cash in court after being sued for libel.
  • The blog networks, I'm thinking Calcanis mostly, will mint money.
  • The blog networks will start aggregating into salon like sites.
  • Prominant bloggers will stop blogging about blogging or lose audience.
  • Most won't adapt, will continue to blog about blogging and will lose their influence.
  • Bloglines will continue to rock.
  • This will be the year of acquisition for social networks and blogging, and it will have horrible consequence for all but a few.
  • Lisa Rein will have to stop posting The Daily Show, or somehow become a cable company. Think C&D or an infringement lawsuit.

    Some predictions around hardware:

  • Personal Media Devices will flop, but people who own them will defend them.
  • Tablets are the computer of the future, and will remain so for this year at least, but the niche people who own them will defend them.
  • We'll see a huge price drop in lcd/plasma/oled display costs.
  • We'll see an ipod like device with a flexible oled display around the curve of a surface.
  • An iPod sized device will crash the 100gb barrier by mid year.
  • All iPods will be iPod photos/videos by year end (except the shuffle)
  • And people still won't buy them for this feature.
  • Cells phones will shake out, there are too many types with too many features that are too similar, even within same manufacturer lines for the US Market to handle.
  • You'll see US providers offer phones in a stairstep of features and price, eliminating phones that are too much like other phones in the roster.
  • The Treo 650 will continue to make buckets o' cash for Handspring.

    Some software Predictions:

  • Firefox will continue to grow in market share.
  • The average user will discover Gaim after getting tired of crappy clients that hate you and see you only as a conduit to advertisers.
  • More and more applications will live online with cool gmail-like/lazloish/flickr rich user interfaces.
  • The age of the desktop app coming to an end? No.
  • Open Source as a term will mean more at the end of this year than is does now.
  • Linux will continue to rock.

    Some filesharing predictions:

  • Circle of Friend filesharing will be on fire this year, with friends sharing files just with friends, and the RIAA is nobody's friends.
  • The Bandwidth ignorant will continue to say things like "movies are too big to share" or "HD movies and flac music won't get shared" or bring quality arguments into the file sharing/piracy discussions "But all online movies look like crap"
  • Bram Cohen will get sued, the eff will represent him and a massive legal defense fund will pop up.
  • The mpaa will start suing RIAA style.

    Some me predictions that I'm comfortable sharing:

  • I'll put on no less than 50000 miles on my frequent flier program and at least 30 hotel nights in.
  • I'll do good work at Google, and will hopefully like my job even more than I already do, and I like it an awful lot right now.
  • Open Sources 2 will come out soon (This is easy, we're almost ready to send this in to production)
  • I'll write and speak more about open source this year than I did my first years of VA, which is saying something.
  • I'll post more often, no, really I will.
  • I'll write some fiction sometime and publish that.

    Michael Bresnahan said...

    Good Predictions, keep posting/writing, there are people out there who do check almost everyday.

    Natala said...

    hmm. i have a tablet PC, but i find that i don't use the functionality. I think the pen-to-surface/screen is too slippery. It reminds me of when i had my first palm and i used to stick tape on the writing area so that i had more friction so that writing became easier. I think the smoothness of the tablet makes writing tiring. Additionally, i think the power of the tablet comes with really mastering programs like OneNote -- and that's time consuming. Writing notes in Notepad is still easier and these days i type faster then i write. It is nice to be able to add your own personal graffiti to doc reviews tho...

    If you swing back up to seattle, LMK.